Commonsense and the laws of thermodynamics suggest that exponential growth cannot go on forever. For example, fusion is sometimes promoted as a limitless source of clean energy. However, we will not see a self-supporting fusion reactor before 2030 at the very earliest. We won’t be able to realistically assess the technology’s potential until this first small-scale experiment is complete, and even then, there's no guarantee it will work. We might find it necessary to build another experimental reactor, which will take another twenty-odd years, before we can realistically make a judgement. In my opinion, it would be extremely unwise to make any plans based on this technology until 2050 at the very earliest. There's no basis for the idea that it will not be subject to some kind of constraint.
A contrary view is that road and air transport are not sustainable, because fossil fuels are finite, and because their consumption causes climate change, and because we have not yet commercialised suitable alternatives.
Extremist Perpsectives are Unrealistic
There's no reason to think that road transport will necessarily be constrained by energy shortages, or that its impact on climate change cannot be neutralised. Engineers know how to make renewable, carbon-neutral petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. Some of the necessary technologies are still being commercialised, but no new inventions are required.
It's also worth keeping in mind that present-day cars, trucks, buses, trains, aeroplanes, and ships are built mostly from readily recycled materials such as steel and aluminium.
The odd technological breakthrough might improve matters, but the world will not be forced to abandon motorised road transport if they don't happen. The same goes for aviation and shipping.
I’ve spent a good part of the last three years surveying the strengths and weaknesses of various carbon-neutral and carbon-free technologies. I've identified a raft of excellent technologies seldom mentioned in mainstream NZ media. After analysing their strengths and weaknesses, I’ve reached the following conclusions:
It is very unlikely that global supplies of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, and other hydrocarbon products will taper off when crude oil production starts winding down. We have plenty other other ways of making these
products.
Even if the world is forced to use an alternative road transport technology, energy will not be the constraint. The world can continue to support present levels of land, air, and sea transport using a mix of renewable fuels and well-proven alternative technologies. There is room for a small amount of growth, but not much.
New Zealand scientists and engineers know how to satisfy local transport requirements with carbon-neutral petrol, diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil, made from renewable indigenous resources. Unlike the rest of the world, we already know we do not need alternative road transport technology such as ethanol, hydrogen, or batteries. The necessary technology has already passed the high-risk laboratory and pilot-scale development phases. We can expect it to be commercially mature within the next decade.
Later this year I’ll write about these future transport technologies. For the moment, my main concern is that Wellington’s transport infrastructure is being shaped by an inappropriate debate. On one side is the belief that roads will eventually become redundant. On the other side, the belief that our roading system can expand indefinitely. Both positions are wrong.
Both sides must accept that their opponents may have some worthwhile points to make. Wellington is very much a work in progress. It emerged from a series of historical accidents and the city was built by people trying to make the best of various unplanned situations. It has never had an effective land transport system. Its street layout is, at best, an ad hoc shambles, and it is getting worse.
Better Communication Can Lead to Genuine Improvements
Right now, Wellingtonians are talking past each other, and this lack of genuine communication is ruining our city.
Karo Drive exemplifies the problem. As far as I can tell, roading opponents wanted two things: They wanted uninterrupted pedestrian flow from the Aro Valley down through Cuba Street (and perhaps Willis Street) to the CBD; and they wanted the heritage neighbourhood to be preserved.
The purpose of the new road was to provide an unimpeded route for through traffic, bypassing the CBD.
Clearly, both of these results could have been achieved by building a four or six-lane tunnel from Willis Street to Taranaki Street, with the road then running alongside Buckle Street to the Basin Reserve.
Engineers would prefer to build such a tunnel by the "cut-and-cover" technique. That is, they dig a trench for the road, and then roof it over. They would have needed to move all the existing buildings, build the tunnel, and then restore the neighbourhood.
The original plan called for a trench.
Instead of calling for it to be converted into a tunnel, with restoration of the neighbourhood, objectors decided to fight the whole idea of a road. The upshot? Upper Cuba Street is divided in two by a very busy street, a bunch of very nice heritage buildings have been plonked into a fake heritage precinct that no-one uses, and Wellington still does not have a decent through road.
Some parts of the project can be salvaged, but for the money, we could have done a lot better if the various groups had communicated better.
Energy is not the Constraint
There is no technical reason why transportation should be constrained by the supply of carbon-neutral renewable energy. Oil producers would very much like us to believe there is, because if we think there's a looming energy crisis, we'll stoically allow them to rip us off.
In my opinion, humanity will quite likely encounter other constraints, such as possible shortages of minerals and water. Neglecting Wellington's transport infrastructure cannot, in any way, mitigate those problems.
In my next instalment, I'll write about the ways that Wellington can develop its road and rail systems to complement each other, preserving the things that make Wellington special, and eliminating the blockages that throttle its economy and make life difficult and stressful for tradespeople, transport operators, and
other folk who spend part or all of their workday using Wellington's roads.
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